What Are Your Oscar Predictions?
Yay!!! It’s Oscartime. To celebrate the occasion, my friend Yoshi is throwing a swank party on Sunday. I’m so excited! I’ll fill you in on all of the juicy details soon. But, before tomorrow’s show starts, let’s share Oscar predictions. I’ll tell you mine if you tell me yours. Ready? Here are my predictions for who’s gonna walk home with the top awards …
BEST ACTOR:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Other nominees: Terrence Howard in “Hustle & Flow”; Heath Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain”; Leaf Phoenix in “Walk the Line”; and David Strathairn in “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Believe it or not, I’ve seen neither Capote, Hustle & Flow, Walk the Line nor Good Night, and Good Luck. (Life was hectic during the end of the 2005 when most of these films were released.) So, I have to base my opinion on the actors’ previous performances as well as their history in the industry. With that, I predict Phillip Seymour Hoffman is going to take it home. He has been in the industry for over 15 years, and his early movies include: Twister, Boogie Nights and Big Lebowski. Since then, he’s given pretty strong performances in films like Happiness, Along Came Polly and State and Main. He’s a great actor; it might be his turn to win.
BEST ACTRESS
Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”
Other Nominees: Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents”; Keira Knightley in “Pride & Prejudice”; Charlize Theron in “North Country”; and Mrs. Ryan Phillipe in “Walk the Line”
I immediately eliminated Keira (too young) and Charlize (recently won for Monster). That leaves Felicity, Judi, and Reese in the running. This is a hard one, but here’s my prediction … If Capote wins Best Picture, I predict that Felicity will take the Oscar home. BUT, if Brokeback Mountain wins Best Picture that would shake things up a bit because then, politically, I don’t think that the Academy would give a top award to Transamerica too. So, if Brokeback wins best picture, then the Oscar might go to either Judi because, well, she’s Judi or Reese because she sang.
BEST PICTURE
“Brokeback Mountain”
Other Nominees: “Capote”, “Crash”, “Good Night, and Good Luck”, “Munich” , and “Brokeback Goonies”
If this movie doesn’t win, I would be really really really surprised. It’s a great movie on so many different levels and in so many different ways. The storyline is good. The cinematography is beautifully framed and saturated with color. And, the actors give strong performances—though Heath’s is better than Jakey’s. By the way, have you all seen the spoof videos on You Tube? Brokeback to the Future, Brokeback Stooges, Brokeback Hour (Chris Tucker loves Jackie Chan), etc.? Am I crazy, or did they miss the best one ever … Brokeback Goonies: Sloth Loves Chunk! Someone should create it; I would love to see that video. You know that Baby Ruth candy bar? Ain’t nobody’s business what they do with it but theirs …
QUESTION: I’m curious. What are your Oscar predictions? Please use the comment section to tell us who you think will win Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture.
March 4th, 2006 at 1:40 pm
I am SO out of the loop because while we LOVE movies, we rarely get out to see them these days. With this apartment costing us a fortune (even more than you pay for rent, Stolie!) we can’t afford a babysitter and my parents have a hard time with the boy for more than an hour or so at a time. So I, too, am basing this on past performances and politics.
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix – He has been so raved upon in this film and he done lots of other good work. I LOVE the name Joaquin (though “Leaf” is pretty cool too) but it’s considered too “ethnic” in this area for a whitey like me to name a son that…
BEST ACTRESS: Charlize Theron – I think Flicka should get it, but the South African beauty is well loved.
BEST PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain – It is time for a gay lovestory to be totally mainstream and not relagated to premium movie channels (I loved “Queer as Folk” on Showtime) or sit coms.
I’m looking forward to the Oscars more this year than in the past. Have a great time at the party. Is it a bit dress-up affair?
March 4th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
Hi from Istanbul!!! My prediction about oscar is nearly the same as yours but i think Reese Witherspoon will win the Best Actress. Of course Hoffman win the Best Actor. It is hard to choose Best Picture because all these films are more or less sama quality film. However in my opinion Brokeback Mountain will win Best Picture and Best Director. Maybe Spielberg make an suprise, it had better to say the jury ll make an suprise, this film should be Munich.
There is a good things in this year Oscar. All the films budgets are not so high. The highest one is Munich and it is 60 million dollar. Also all the nominee films commit a political or humanitarian problems. These kinds of films are selected as a Oscar nominee is really great for me.
Lastly i want to say Best Foreign Language film. I think this should be Paradise Now…
Greeting from Istanbul
Eray
March 5th, 2006 at 2:36 pm
Hola Stolie! I will be watching into the wee hours of the morning…my mother is trying to get me sectioned as I type. I’ve always agreed with the ruling that if an actor had to change their appearance i.e look ugly for a role then they’re in with a good chance for the Oscar. Nicole Kidman…fake nose, Charlize Theron…got fat and wore false teeth..right maybe that’s just for the women then. Can’t wait to check out Go Fug Yourself tomorrow though. Muhahahahahahaaa
March 6th, 2006 at 9:16 am
MamaChristy: The party was small, but absolutely fabulous. We cracked open the bubbly stuff and enjoyed the festivities from the pre-show to the post-show. All Oscar. All the time. :)
Eray HOBIKGIL: Welcome to the blog!!! I think you’re my only visitor from Turkey. If I knew a Turkish greeting, I would say it. :) You were spot on about Reese & Phillip Seymour Hoffman. I think *everyone* thought Brokeback was going to win. I totally agree with you about the smaller budget films. I still have to see a lot of the films that were listed. My Netflix queue grows longer every day!!
Nics: It was so nice to “talk” to you during the Oscars! :) Technology is GREAT. And, yeah, I sooooo thought Felicity was going to take it home. Lately, ugly = Oscar. I was surprised that Reese won, but now I really want to see Walk the Line.
March 6th, 2006 at 1:31 pm
Stolie: We filled out our guesses on the Entertainment weekly ballot that was in last weeks issue and had a party at Sis’s. I got the most correct with 14. I was surprised that Crash took the big one.
March 6th, 2006 at 5:59 pm
I missed the whole thing! We were on the road, coming home from LA.
:(
March 7th, 2006 at 12:13 am
Tonito Bandito: 14 Correct??? Wow!! You’re better than me. I only guessed 3 … and I got 2 of those wrong. ;) And, yeah, I know what you mean about Crash. I think everyone was really surprised by that one.
Mel Chickk: NOOOO! You missed it? But, it’s the Oscars. Next year, remember: no road trips during the awards. :)